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The Conference Board Leading Indicators Index
The Conference Board Leading Indicators Index
The "Conference Board Leading Economic Index Annual Percentage Change" US chart below, pulls together a bunch of the best 'leading' indicators to give stronger overall leading indicator for the direction of the economy (and therefore the stock market).
The chart above is for the US, which is very important to follow if you have a standard globally diversified fund as the lions share of stocks will me US stocks. The links below give the same LEI index figures for various countries and regions around the world...
Global LEI (click the "Country Leading Indicators" link to see a breakdown by country)
Global Data Summary (the LEI breakdown by Country region shown on this page is a good snapshot summary for the health of our globally diversified portfolio)
A NEW LEI RECORD SPELLS TROUBLE AHEAD
Another chart below for the US shows the number of consecutive monthly LEI declines. The grey shaded areas are recessions. In 2023 the chart showed a record number of monthly declines WITHOUT seeing a recession. This is quite extraordinary and likely more of a warning sign that something is about to break rather than a sign of economic strength or resilience...
Every recession in the US has been preceded by multi-month declines in the Conference Board LEI, and that is exactly what happened in 2023 as you can see on the right hand side of the chart below. What's more, the 'Coincident' indicators (a.k.a the real economy) always overshoots the Leading indicators almost every time giving the impression the economy is fine just before the recession, represented by the grey bars below, hits.
The LEI indicator signalled a recession in August 2024. Will the signal hold? ...
The OECD COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR
The OECD COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR
The OECD COMPOSITE LEADING INDICATOR combines 10 metrics that measure overall economic conditions.
When the yellow line of peaks in the graph below heads down below the 90% line it signals a reversal from an overheated market…. ...
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